NNT (that is, me): Assume that a coin is fair, i.e., has an equal probability of coming up heads or tails when flipped. I flip it ninety-nine times and get heads each time. What are the odds of my getting tails on my next throw?

Dr. John: Trivial question. One half, of course, since you are assuming 50 percent odds for each and independence between draws.

NNT: What do you say, Tony?

Fat Tony: I’d say no more than 1 percent, of course.

NNT: Why so? I gave you the initial assumption of a fair coin, meaning that it was 50 percent either way.

Fat Tony: You are either full of crap or a pure sucker to buy into that “50 pehcent� business. The coin gotta be loaded. It can’t be a fair game. (Translation : It is far more likely that your assumptions about the fairness are wrong than the coin delivering the ninety-nine heads in ninety-nine throws.)

Bis jetzt habe ich mich doch noch garnicht eingemischt.